397 County Route 28

Altmar, NY 13142

$80,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $420/mo
• Annual: $5,035/yr
• Cap rate: 12.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.48%
• DSCR: 2.00
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,077 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.2% in Altmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.