Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40219
$215,000D+
4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,150 sqft ·
Built 1960
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 1 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,890/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$256
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$397
Net cashflow
$110/mo
Annual
$1,319/yr
Cap rate
6.91%
Cash-on-cash
2.19%
DSCR
1.10
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$60,200
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (12.1% below list).
Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $189k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $143k; list at $215k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BBKBMY87RHG5PQ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29