420 Scarlett Ln

Fort Mill, SC 29715

$275,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,328 sqft · Built 2002 · Townhouse · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,031/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,127/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#23 in SC, #3,459 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• York 04 (suburban): math 65% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #1 of 80 in SC (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary (math 51% / reading 59%, grade C, #119 of 597 statewide, top 20%, 560 students, 42% FRL); Catawba Ridge High School (math 72%, 1,530 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 15% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 68% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the York 04 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,550 units permitted in York County in 2024 (350 in 5+ unit buildings).
• York County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $275k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.3% in Fort Mill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.