3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,680 sqft ·
Built 2008
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 182 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,740/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$740
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$365
Net cashflow
$47/mo
Annual
$564/yr
Cap rate
6.96%
Cash-on-cash
2.37%
DSCR
1.11
1% rule
2.05%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($564/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Billings H S (urban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 116 in MT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Skyview High School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #56 of 132 statewide, top 42%, 1,602 students, 0% FRL).
Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 279 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BBWMWH4ZSJBM6M
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29