7415 Olivia View Ct

Cumming, GA 30028

$540,000D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,444 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,832
• Tax + insurance: −$644
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $-915/mo
• Annual: $-10,982/yr
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.26%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $151,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $540k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-915 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (29.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (39.0% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($491k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $330k (39.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#29 in GA, #3,797 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: employment C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 542 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $330k; list at $540k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Cumming — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.