502 E Heard

Ganado, TX 77962

$150,000C

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,448/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $231/mo
• Annual: $2,774/yr
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.61%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (3.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#70 in TX, #2,570 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Ganado ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #345 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ganado H S (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #630 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 200 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP.
• Jackson County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.