9830 Fm 621

Staples, TX 78655

$145,499D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 370 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,261/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$763
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $688/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $40,740

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($688/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#814 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.