139 Oyster Bay Cir #300

Altamonte Springs, FL 32701

$99,900D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 496 sqft · Built 1980 · Condo · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,349/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$478
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,271/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $81k (18.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#62 in FL, #1,095 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities D-.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Orienta Elementary School (math 50% / reading 50%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 620 students, 73% FRL); Lake Brantley High School (math 38% / reading 56%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,719 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 38% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $100k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Altamonte Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.