4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,813 sqft ·
Built 2023
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 723 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,991/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$325
HOA
−$8
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$418
Net cashflow
$217/mo
Annual
$2,608/yr
Cap rate
7.63%
Cash-on-cash
4.78%
DSCR
1.21
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
It's been on market 723 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#861 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Mossy Head School (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B, #525 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 439 students, 86% FRL); Walton High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 856 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $1,991/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 356% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 723 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BCV4TP6T6BVZ47
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29