9651 Merrillville Rd #204

Crown Point, IN 46307

$174,500D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 14,028 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,521/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-79/mo
• Annual: $-951/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $48,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-951/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#45 in IN, #3,244 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Merrillville Community School Corporation (suburban): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #240 of 301 in IN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 739 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in Crown Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.