869 Pine Tree Dr

Senatobia, MS 38668

$149,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-685/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-685/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (27.7% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $108k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#130 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tate County School District (rural): math 28% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #74 of 130 in MS (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Tate Elementary School (math 31% / reading 31%, grade F, #185 of 375 statewide, top 49%, 461 students, 99% FRL); Independence High School (math 32% / reading 20%, grade F, #108 of 197 statewide, top 55%, 462 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 69% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 114 units permitted in Tate County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tate County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Senatobia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.