86087 Creekwood Dr

Yulee, FL 32097

$430,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,135 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,518/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$575
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-861/mo
• Annual: $-10,333/yr
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.58%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-861 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (35.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (41.5% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($424k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.