5618 Willow Point Blvd

San Antonio, TX 78219

$186,999C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,656/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax + insurance: −$312
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $16/mo
• Annual: $188/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $52,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($188/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $166k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hirsch El (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 533 students, 95% FRL); Davis Middle (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 545 students, 96% FRL, charter); Houston H S (math 12% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 856 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 80% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.