62 Ellisville Junction Rd

Ellisville, MS 39437

$189,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,534/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $28/mo
• Annual: $335/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.14%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($335/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (18.8% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $153k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#123 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County School District (rural): math 40% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #40 of 130 in MS (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Jones Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #152 of 375 statewide, top 41%, 1,070 students, 100% FRL); South Jones High School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #56 of 197 statewide, top 29%, 1,306 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $189k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.