94 Laurel Dr

Montauk, NY 11954

$3,995,000F

5 bd · 5.5 ba · 4,100 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 233 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,468/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax + insurance: −$6,658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,928
• Net cashflow: $-9,069/mo
• Annual: $-108,822/yr
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.73%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $1,118,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath land listed at $4.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9k ($-109k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.68M (32.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.35M (41.3% below list).
• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.35M (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $28k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $71k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Montauk Union Free School District (town): math 50% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #311 of 755 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.05M; list at $4.00M implies a 280% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 7.9% in Montauk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $23,468/mo this rent would consume 197% of the median local household income ($143k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.