1301 N Lake St

Oneida, NY 13421

$117,900B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,663/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$618
• Tax + insurance: −$372
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $323/mo
• Annual: $3,880/yr
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.75%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $33,012

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $815 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#924 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety C-.
• Oneida City School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #421 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $118k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.0% in Oneida — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.