700 Pioneer Ln

Florence, CO 81226

$185,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,068 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $42/mo
• Annual: $504/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($504/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (13.2% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $161k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#277 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Fremont Re-2 (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #48 of 86 in CO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fremont Elementary School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #405 of 966 statewide, top 43%, 507 students, 60% FRL); Florence Jr./Sr. High School (math 17% / reading 38%, grade F, #255 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 585 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Fremont County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fremont County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.5% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.