4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,425 sqft ·
Built 2010
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,932/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$211
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$406
Net cashflow
$-154/mo
Annual
$-1,842/yr
Cap rate
5.63%
Cash-on-cash
-2.35%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (9.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (31.0% below list).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $193k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#186 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Elkins School District (rural): math 43% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #57 of 238 in AR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Elkins Elem. Primary School (321 students, 49% FRL); Elkins Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #70 of 201 statewide, top 38%, 348 students, 44% FRL); Elkins High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 292 statewide, top 61%, 418 students, 36% FRL).
Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $140k; list at $280k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Elkins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BEP7WR45FYAS3E
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29