4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,034 sqft ·
Built 2022
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 68 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,119/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,678
Tax + insurance
−$303
HOA
−$29
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$655
Net cashflow
$454/mo
Annual
$5,446/yr
Cap rate
7.99%
Cash-on-cash
6.08%
DSCR
1.27
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$89,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (2.5% below list).
It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $301k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Carolina Springs Elementary (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #359 of 597 statewide, top 60%, 850 students, 41% FRL); Carolina Springs Middle (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #119 of 229 statewide, top 54%, 914 students, 46% FRL); White Knoll High (math 47% / reading 85%, grade B, #81 of 196 statewide, top 42%, 2,204 students, 45% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $3,119/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 935% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BEVE1G9H34V7CV
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29