2831 Indian Creek Blvd

Oklahoma City, OK 73120

$125,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,129 sqft · Built 1975 · Townhouse · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-924/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-924/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (10.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $111k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Oklahoma City (urban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #254 of 270 in OK (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Quail Creek Es (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #540 of 845 statewide, top 68%, 543 students, 0% FRL); Classen Ms of Advanced Studies (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #6 of 345 statewide, top 1%, 855 students, 0% FRL); John Marshall Hs (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #430 of 447 statewide, top 99%, 829 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 82% district-wide (82 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 8% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oklahoma City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?