21807 Hidden Rivers Dr N

Southfield, MI 48075

$160,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · Built 1972 · Condo · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,902/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$484
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-838/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-838/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (7.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#248 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Southfield Public School District (urban): math 17% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #392 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morris Adler Elementary School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,397 statewide, top 99%, 336 students, 67% FRL); Glenn W Levey Middle School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #453 of 493 statewide, top 93%, 316 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Southfield Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 95 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Southfield — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?