1302 W Ajo Way #164

Tucson, AZ 85713

$90,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 346 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$675
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,287/yr
• Cap rate: 2.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.04%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $50k (44.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 346 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (44.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 52% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 346 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?