1885 Lexington Ave Unit 5B

New York, NY 10035

$470,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 955 sqft · Built 2012 · Condo · Active · 439 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax + insurance: −$783
• HOA: −$1,313
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,172
• Net cashflow: $-151/mo
• Annual: $-1,817/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $131,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-151 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $470k).
• It's been on market 439 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $414k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #6 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 1,207 students, 44% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,582/mo this rent would consume 148% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 3992% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 439 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?