4540 Alcona St

Goodar, MI 48761

$42,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $816/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $355/mo
• Annual: $4,255/yr
• Cap rate: 16.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.18%
• DSCR: 2.61
• 1% rule: 1.94%
• Cash to close: $11,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $42k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($816 rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($41k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $41k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $517 of equity ($290 loan paydown + $227 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• West Branch-Rose City Area Schools (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #306 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 57 units permitted in Ogemaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ogemaw County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: exterior siding — Light wear
• Minor: interior paint — Worn paint