3730 Bales Ave

Kansas City, MO 64128

$128,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Built 1923 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax + insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $344/mo
• Annual: $4,131/yr
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.53%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $35,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($885 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#28 in MO, #2,671 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Kansas City 33 (urban): math 12% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #308 of 324 in MO (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 4,002 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (2,271 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.9% in Kansas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,415/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($36k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.