235 Castle Rd

Brighton, NY 14623

$299,900D+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,125 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$611
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,566/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.3% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in NY, #1,379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-.
• Rush-Henrietta Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #237 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Brighton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,599/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1161% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.