31842 Kelly Rd

Roseville, MI 48066

$90,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 797 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,260/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $98/mo
• Annual: $1,180/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.68%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, crime F.
• Roseville Community Schools (suburban): math 11% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #483 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roseville High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #622 of 713 statewide, top 88%, 1,216 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 269 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $90k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.9% in Roseville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?