4406 Eaglewood Trail Dr

Fresno, TX 77545

$273,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,020 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,432
• Tax + insurance: −$541
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-129/mo
• Annual: $-1,547/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $76,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $273k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (11.5% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 12900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.