1123 Concannon St

Moberly, MO 65270

$148,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 968 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-46/mo
• Annual: $-557/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.34%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $41,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-557/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Park Elem. (188 students, 69% FRL); Moberly Middle (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 497 students, 59% FRL); Moberly Sr. High (math 2% / reading 52%, grade F, #417 of 521 statewide, top 80%, 691 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $148k implies a 1641% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.