3721 Rush Rd

Santa Fe, TX 77510

$435,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,668 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,623/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$852
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,961
• Net cashflow: $15,528/mo
• Annual: $186,340/yr
• Cap rate: 49.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 152.99%
• DSCR: 7.81
• 1% rule: 5.43%
• Cash to close: $121,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16k ($186k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($24k rent vs $435k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($428k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $428k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William F Barnett El (math 59% / reading 46%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 646 students, 59% FRL); Santa Fe H S (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 1,369 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 35% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $44k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 49.1% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.