14775 Upper 56th St N

Oak Park Heights, MN 55082

$325,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,213 sqft · Built 1998 · Townhouse · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$335
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$717
• Net cashflow: $175/mo
• Annual: $2,101/yr
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.31%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $306k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#79 in MN, #1,879 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.8% in Oak Park Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.