4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,225 sqft ·
Built 1951
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,025/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,097
Tax + insurance
−$650
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$845
Net cashflow
$433/mo
Annual
$5,193/yr
Cap rate
7.59%
Cash-on-cash
4.64%
DSCR
1.21
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$111,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $394k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 88/100 on livability (#12 in MI, #200 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
Birmingham Public Schools (suburban): math 58% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #18 of 540 in MI (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
16 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $2k; list at $400k implies a 20947% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.5% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($153k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BHSJZCADVJ6BH2
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29