83 Bayberry Hill Rd

Avon, CT 06001

$1,895,000B

6 bd · 7.5 ba · 7,098 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,269/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,938
• Tax + insurance: −$2,907
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,886
• Net cashflow: $5,538/mo
• Annual: $66,451/yr
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.52%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $530,600

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/7.5-bath single-family listed at $1.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($66k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $1.90M).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.78M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.78M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Avon School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #11 of 153 in CT (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $155k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.41M; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $531k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.