6456 Valley Brook Trce

Masonville, KY 42373

$240,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Built 2018 · Other · Pending · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-126/mo
• Annual: $-1,517/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (25.0% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#213 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Daviess County (suburban): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #43 of 165 in KY (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Oaks Elementary School (math 52% / reading 42%, grade D-, #119 of 676 statewide, top 19%, 465 students, 53% FRL); College View Middle School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 863 students, 50% FRL); Daviess County High School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #37 of 254 statewide, top 15%, 1,740 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 226 units permitted in Daviess County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Daviess County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Masonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.