2874 Cr 4750

Broaddus, TX 75929

$157,400F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · Built 1992 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$825
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $-348/mo
• Annual: $-4,174/yr
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.47%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $44,072

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $157k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-348 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (39.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (41.8% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#844 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Broaddus ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Broaddus El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 184 students, 80% FRL); Broaddus H S (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 199 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in San Augustine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Augustine County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.