12 bd · 8.0 ba ·
2,833 sqft ·
Built 1954
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 14 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$21,841/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$9,172
Tax + insurance
−$2,915
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$4,587
Net cashflow
$5,167/mo
Annual
$62,009/yr
Cap rate
9.84%
Cash-on-cash
12.66%
DSCR
1.56
1% rule
1.25%
Cash to close
$489,720
Investor read
This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.75M. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($22k rent vs $1.75M).
Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
In year one you build about $178k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $166k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $538k; list at $1.75M implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (9.5% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $490k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$286k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $21,841/mo this rent would consume 128% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 1336% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BJES8PCZPAN7KN
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29