2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
777 sqft ·
Built 1996
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 297 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,638/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$752
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$554
Net cashflow
$310/mo
Annual
$3,716/yr
Cap rate
10.82%
Cash-on-cash
16.18%
DSCR
1.72
1% rule
1.35%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#157 in TX, #4,282 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Derry El (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 446 students, 90% FRL); Port Isabel J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 425 students, 84% FRL); Port Isabel H S (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 606 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 35% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.4% in Port Isabel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BJJNSA6NRNRR2C
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29