2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
864 sqft ·
Built 1940
· Other
· Pending
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$852/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$412
Tax + insurance
−$131
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$179
Net cashflow
$131/mo
Annual
$1,570/yr
Cap rate
8.29%
Cash-on-cash
7.14%
DSCR
1.32
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$21,980
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $78k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($852 rent vs $78k).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $76k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $3k of equity ($543 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 52/100 on livability (#852 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Bowling Green R-I (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #146 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Bowling Green Elem. (math 33% / reading 49%, grade F, #520 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 558 students, 48% FRL); Bowling Green High (math 14% / reading 52%, grade F, #351 of 521 statewide, top 68%, 364 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pike County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Significant weathering and cracking
Minor: kitchen flooring
— Some wear, but not severe enough to replace
Minor: bathroom flooring
— Some wear, but not severe enough to replace