Zenith (Forest Lakes) Plan

Conway, AR 72034

$75,995D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 326 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,122/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$399
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-39/mo
• Annual: $-464/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $21,279

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $76k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-464/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $70k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $76k).
• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $525 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#71 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Conway School District (urban): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #36 of 238 in AR (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodrow Cummins Elementary Sch (math 74% / reading 49%, grade B, #33 of 454 statewide, top 7%, 465 students, 40% FRL); Ruth Doyle Intermediate School (math 49% / reading 55%, grade C+, #30 of 201 statewide, top 16%, 562 students, 48% FRL); Conway High West (math 37% / reading 50%, grade F, #36 of 292 statewide, top 12%, 2,181 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Faulkner County in 2024 (451 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Faulkner County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Conway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?