3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,143 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 60 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,762/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,271
Tax + insurance
−$404
HOA
−$19
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$370
Net cashflow
$-302/mo
Annual
$-3,618/yr
Cap rate
4.80%
Cash-on-cash
-5.33%
DSCR
0.76
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$67,841
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $242k. Condition is rated excellent.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (18.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (27.3% below list).
It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $176k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Calera Elementary (752 students, 64% FRL); Calera Middle (math 9% / reading 45%, grade F, #147 of 257 statewide, top 58%, 755 students, 61% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BKSMQP2EYG435C
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29