415 E Dean St., Unit 38, Week 33

Aspen, CO 81611

$190,000C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,137 sqft · Built 2005 · Timeshare · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,007/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$317
• HOA: −$1,016
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,892
• Net cashflow: $4,787/mo
• Annual: $57,442/yr
• Cap rate: 36.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.97%
• DSCR: 5.80
• 1% rule: 4.74%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath timeshare listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $190k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 23 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $260k (58%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $9,007/mo this rent would consume 131% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.