38 Saddle Ridge Rd

Bedford, NY 10576

$1,795,000B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,913 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax + insurance: −$3,006
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $3,381/mo
• Annual: $40,567/yr
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $502,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($41k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.79M).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.77M (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $81k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#718 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bedford Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #211 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pound Ridge Elementary School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 238 students, 10% FRL); Fox Lane Middle School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade C-, #300 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 765 students, 38% FRL); Fox Lane High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 1,241 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 10% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$131k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 1.6% in Bedford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.