Plan 1676 Modeled Plan

Roman Forest, TX 77357

$214,995D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,866/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-648/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $61,906

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-648/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.2% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 5.0% in Roman Forest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.