425 Oklahoma Rd

Brownsville, KY 42207

$167,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 1975 · Other · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-786/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $46,760

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $167k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-786/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#234 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Edmonson County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #53 of 165 in KY (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.
• Edmonson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.