12207 W Village Dr Unit B

Houston, TX 77039

$80,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · Built 1979 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,543/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $239/mo
• Annual: $2,866/yr
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hambrick Middle (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,520 of 1,662 statewide, top 92%, 1,021 students, 93% FRL); Macarthur H S (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,397 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 3,571 students, 85% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.