Aspen II Plan

Wentzville, MO 63385

$307,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,945
• Tax + insurance: −$618
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-829/mo
• Annual: $-9,949/yr
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $103,838

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-829 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (28.7% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#14 in MO, #1,402 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.