11002 Hammerly Blvd #105

Houston, TX 77043

$148,000D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,294 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,726/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$398
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-127/mo
• Annual: $-1,521/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $41,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (15.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring Branch ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #215 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Terrace El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 383 students, 78% FRL); Spring Oaks Middle (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 644 students, 91% FRL); Spring Woods H S (math 53% / reading 36%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,113 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 54% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 8357% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $148k implies a 605% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?