16 bd · None ba ·
2,440 sqft ·
Built 1982
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 189 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,424/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,179
Tax + insurance
−$633
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$719
Net cashflow
$892/mo
Annual
$10,709/yr
Cap rate
11.05%
Cash-on-cash
17.01%
DSCR
1.76
1% rule
1.52%
Cash to close
$62,972
Investor read
This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $223/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#886 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
10 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.9% in Cloverleaf — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,424/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1816% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-BQ2S43AMT2MERG
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29