30615 Arenga Palm

Homeland, CA 92548

$199,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$135
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $179/mo
• Annual: $2,146/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.83%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,297 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D.
• Romoland Elementary (suburban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #699 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 11 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 6.0% in Homeland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.