2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,284 sqft ·
Built 1830
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 207 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,380/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$118
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$290
Net cashflow
$606/mo
Annual
$7,268/yr
Cap rate
16.68%
Cash-on-cash
37.08%
DSCR
2.65
1% rule
1.97%
Cash to close
$19,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#158 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Rockingham County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #120 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Western Rockingham Middle (math 39% / reading 40%, grade F, #232 of 475 statewide, top 50%, 556 students, 63% FRL); Dalton Mcmichael High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 723 students, 59% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1830 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 344 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Rockingham County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 2.9% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1830 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BQ3VK489JVTKQM
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29